ASX 200 jumped 103 points yesterday, global equities moderately higher, gold & silver lower, ASX futures 15 points lower

Today's first chart shows two of last night's bigger movers, which seem to have been pushed lower by technical reasons given the absence in data that emerged last night. US dollar spot gold (XAUUSD) and silver (XAGUSD) sold off last night for no great fundamental reason, providing a source of volatility for intra-day traders in an otherwise quiet market. I've taken a grab of year-to-date gold and silver performance to illustrate the chasm between performance of these two spot metals. While there has been a lot of action in the silver price, I think gold has become a very boring trade: there's no scary signs of inflation around to get long investors excited, yet at the same time the gold price is not temping anyone to sell out of the trade - it just seems to have gone a bit dead. You can see the Jan/Feb and June/July moves in silver have seemed to close the gap quickly on a bit of bullish gold price action, proving the leveraged nature of silver to these trends. With recent lows established in November, the most tempting trade I can see here is a long silver position with a stop set strictly below 2014 daily closing lows of US$15.30.

It looks like the ASX/S&P 200 got a little ahead of itself yesterday, in an exuberant and rare 100+ point one-day session. The March '15 SPI 200 night future (APH5) retreated 15 points from yesterday's close until this morning, but nonetheless the market is now sitting just below the 5,450 level, which is a near 300-point lift in just one week. Today's second chart is a bit messy, but it does show that--from the 16 December inflexion point--FMG, RIO & BHP have risen 12.13%, 9.5% and 8.5% in that order, versus the ASX 200's 5.5%. There are definitely counter-cyclical traders who have been keen to re-enter mining names at a time when they have been extremely unloved, and it looks like this is beginning to take place. While the issues that are facing myriad commodity producers aren't going away quickly, some of the huge discounts that have emerged this year may have some investors taking a step back and asking whether the decimation of market capitalisations is commensurate with the effects on long-term future earnings from these businesses.

Today's last chart shows the Australian dollar, which, despite stronger equity markets and 'risk-on' moves by traders, remains in the US$0.81-$0.82 range with intra-day lows of US$0.81 set on 18 December.

Today’s charts are taken from the Rivkin Trader platform. 30,000 global instruments available to trade including FX, commodities, index, ETFs and international shares. Trade Australian share CFDs from just $8 or 0.10%. Click here or phone 1300 748 546 to get your free $100,000 demo account.

Upcoming economic announcements: Chinese leading economic index out at 1pm, French GDP at 6:45pm, UK GDP at 8:30pm, Canadian GDP at 12:30am, US durable goods orders at 12:30am, all Sydney time.

comments powered by Disqus

DISCLAIMER: Rivkin aims to provide clear and simple information to those visiting our website. If any part of this disclaimer does not make sense, please phone Rivkin and ask to speak with a member of our Dealing and Relationship Management Team. Rivkin provides general advice and dealing services on securities, derivatives and superannuation (SMSF). Rivkin also provide SMSF administration and accounting services. Rivkin does not provide advice that takes into account your, or anybody else's, investment objectives, financial situation or needs. We strongly suggest that you consult an independent, licenced financial advisor before acting upon any information contained on this website. Investing in and trading securities (such as shares listed on the ASX) and/or derivatives (such as Contracts for Difference or 'CFDs') carry financial risks. CFDs carry with them various additional risks that differ from more simple securities such as fully-paid company shares. Some of these risks include not owning the underlying instrument from which a price is being derived, settling trades 'over the counter' with a financial institution rather than on a stock exchange, and using leverage to gain access to trades that may have a higher face value than your initial deposit. This risk of leverage means that it is possible to lose more than your initial investment. Our aim is to create more life choices for our clients, which means improving the wealth of clients throughout many market cycles by nurturing a relationship spanning many years. If you are not comfortable with your understanding of the risks involved before using a Rivkin product and service, please contact our office to seek further information or a Product Disclosure Statement, or make an appointment to sit with one of our friendly financial experts. It is in our interest for your Rivkin experience to be a rewarding and comfortable one. Rivkin is a trading name of Rivkin Securities ABN 87123290602, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 332 802.